Annual Economic Outlook for the British economy and Sterling prices in 2014

The transformation of the British economy in 2013 the envy of the world. In the previous year, Britain has seen economic growth, starting in 2013, the rate of growth is quite simple, but they began moving rapidly in the second quarter of the year thanks to the monetary and financial policy established by the British Government. And lows in July to current levels, British pound/US dollar by over 9%. And reflecting the improvement in the British economy and the rise in rates will, British FTSE index to its highest in 13 years this year, while bond yields rose to ten years by over 100 points, up 2.97 percent. Unfortunately, this has not been translated to the unprecedented rise in sterling. While the British Pound rose substantially against the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar, but it was only small gains against the u.s. dollar and the New Zealand role. And against the euro, Swiss franc, Sterling, which was surprising because Britain has grown at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the third quarter of the year, while contracted rate of growth in the euro area by 0.4%. Next year, we expect to gain momentum in the British economy next year but will not be the biggest gains against the US dollar but also versus the major currencies.

Three factors lead the British economy in 2014

-Real estate market

-Banking sector

-Global growth rate

British economic growth will lead the 2014 both real estate and banking sector and the strength of the global economy. The British Government has done a great job of supporting the mortgage market this year, with funding for borrowing, procurement assistance programme. It will help the British Government's commitment to keep interest rates at a low level to maintain low mortgage interest, thereby pushing up real estate prices and attract foreign investment. The British Government understands that the real estate market is essential to maintain support for the economy until consumers feel optimistic. After writing off huge amounts of bad debt, the banking sector is expected to record profits and revenues. If the global economic environment improves, that will promote the economic recovery and help the UK economy to reach an economic growth rate of 2.8% is a target level for growth from the Bank of England in 2014, a level higher than the Bank's target for growth in 2013 which was at 1.6%. And there are areas of interest, such as slow economic growth in Europe and reducing demand in the region and the high rate of unemployment which may limit consumer spending. The British Bank has stepped the new year cautiously, maintaining an average economic stimulus as long as possible. .

Under the leadership of mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, the Bank began a policy of the future extension to keep interest rates low. And led a revolutionary application of this policy in other parts of the year, but in Britain, the future extension of the sharp criticism that the Central Bank has reduced the power of the labour market. In August, the Bank thinks that the unemployment rate will drop to 7 percent in the second half of the year 2016 and last month blamed the World Bank forecast a rapid improvement with signs that the unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2015. Now the unemployment rate is located away from the 0.4%, this means that you can easily access to the unemployment rate of the Bank in mid-2014. While the Central Bank said that the rate of unemployment at 7% would be the beginning, not a spark, to raise the interest rate, steep unemployment rate encouraged investors to anticipate that there will be an early tightening of monetary policy from the Bank of England.

The announcement was the next Bank of England inflation and expectations for the future of the British economy, and monetary policy makers will have to take a very important decision, taking into account two important, namely maintaining forecast unemployment rate and/or reduce the requirement to change the monetary policy with the unemployment rate at 6.5%. It is the key factor on the rate of wage growth. At present there is a slowdown in wage growth than inflation but that wage rate acceleration, you'll feel the British bank that is more pressure to raise interest rates. Unlike the fed, which was his first step is to reduce the asset purchases, the British bank that his first action would be to raise the interest rate. Current projections indicate that the Bank of England might raise interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2015. And the economic data is improving and the rate of wage growth, investors will be looking to take the British Bank early action more

Economic future look to the Australian economy, Australian dollar AUD by 2014

Was 2013 a hard year for the Australian dollar, which has between 15 to 20 percent of its value against the main currencies, and AGP were the only currency that enables Australian superiority it is Japanese yen. The slow growth rate and cut interest rates by 50 basis points and talk of currency intervention are reasons pushed the Australian dollar to fall to its lowest level in three years against the US dollar and the euro, its lowest level in four years against the Chinese Yuan and the British pound. In the long term, the weak currency is good news for Australia, but for the State loves its people shop online for goods from outside the country, the less purchasing power as this to make Australians feel poverty. Having a weak currency is vital to recovery for the export-dependent economies, with expectations of slowing growth in 2014, says Australian Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said he wanted to see the Australian dollar around 85 cents or below current levels by 4.5%. There are a number of economic factors is expected to lead the Australian dollar down next year and therefore do not believe that there will be a significant decrease of the US dollar/Australian dollar below 85 cents.

One of the main reasons that made the performance of Australian dollar weak as seen next year is that the Australian currency lost property high-risk currencies. Their relationship collapsed entirely in stocks, where the currency fell while stocks at their highest during several years. Traditionally brings us dollar simultaneously with arrows to the strength of the global economy are positive for the export-dependent economies such as Australia. But in 2013, the Australian dollar failed to benefit from global economic recovery because it has supported very heavily on China. The country has benefited greatly from the investment in the mining sector over the past decade, slowing investment rates, Australian Bank was forced to cut interest rates, thereby recouping any increase in Chinese demand. Under forecasts of slowing Chinese economy in the coming year and prices to the detriment of high dollar, it may be difficult to restore his status as Australian dollar coin with high risks in the first half of the year 2014.

But in the second half of the year, we expect that the relationship between the Australian dollar and stock when the Australian Bank to waive its tendency to ease monetary policy. Investors are concerned at this time that the Australian bank could cut interest rates again in 2014. The Australian Bank has cut its forecast for gross domestic product in 2014 in December, said this month that they did not feel comfortable height. Stevens has spoken about the possibility of intervention, but the only way that could lead to a weak currency is the easier monetary policy. Investors are divided on whether the Bank will ease monetary policy, the Australian again next year or not, and even those doubts fade, the Australian dollar remains weak. The failure of reduced purchases of assets of the Federal Bank in the payment currency is down and the economy continued to grow below trend due to high unemployment and weak demand, the Australian Bank called spark lower Australian dollar. However, the probability is that the Australian Bank most likely may decide to cut interest rates once more, even if they have the inclination to impartiality would limit the low Australian dollar. This corresponds with the price that we have seen in the Australian dollar/US dollar on several occasions, and is high after raising the interest rate change. Here is one of the reasons why we expect low limited Australian dollar/US dollar next year for the Australian dollar/US dollar. The weak currency will finally support enough for the export sector of the economy, even if the Chinese economy slows, the demand for iron ore would remain constant.

Euro – course in 2013 and forecast its direction in 2014 in the light of the analysis of the euro-zone economy 

Was 2013 is very exciting for the euro. While no longer the eurozone debt crisis through the necessary actions taken by Mario Draghi, Governor of the Bank, but the rate of growth was very weak despite the end of the recession in the second quarter of 2013. In the second quarter, the economic growth rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter, the growth rate slowed to 0.1%. The GDP growth rate at-0.4%, which is much weaker than the 2.5 percent recorded in the third quarter. If the Fed had decided monetary policy unchanged over the year, while the European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. The currency has weakened against the euro this year as the yen has dropped by 20 percent, the Australian dollar fell by 17% and the Canadian dollar by 10%. As the euro's performance than the US dollar, but was up by 3.4% is small compared to some other movements.

The strength and flexibility of the euro/US dollar in the second half of 2013 has surprised many investors, especially in the fourth quarter when the Fed increased the desire to reduce purchases of assets. In the shadow rising American securities for Awat 10 years by 100 basis points and rising German bonds for 10 years by 40 basis points only this year, is expected to be EUR/USD trading at lower levels. But the European single currency was supported by a standard current account surplus in the euro area, lower bond yields, and diversity and inclusion. And current account surplus means that there are more funds entering and exiting the country for trade and investment, and the continuous surplus could lead to the rise of the European currency. In the case of the euro area, slowing the rate of growth in the region has reduced the balance between imports and exports, and the gap between them and the Federal Reserve's efforts to keep interest rates at a low level of bond yields have made fairly stable. And finally, after getting out of the debt crisis in the euro zone, investors who had underestimated the value of the assets of the euro area have become more inclined to own these assets this year as rates have improved risk appetite and recovering financial markets. As is the case in us shares, the German Dax index rose I standard level and the euro buyers attracted from investors who may have underestimated the value of European stocks. It is expected that these three factors to apply to the euro next year, reducing the risk of downward-road in EUR/USD. Instead, we expect the pair to be in a certain range but with a downward tendency.

Expected the euro-zone economy is growing at its fastest rate during the 2014 but will keep this sluggish rate of growth for other developed countries. The European Central Bank expects the economic growth rate accelerated to 1.1% from the current level at-0.4%, which is very moderate if compared with the growth rate of 3% is expected of America next year. With expectations low unemployment rate a little higher level standard at 12.2%, many in Europe to recover. With low interest rates and rising wages, economic growth will be supported by a strong German investor consumption and more exports. In return, France will be the sick man of Europe. With unemployment 10.9% (compared to 6.9% in Germany, and continued fiscal consolidation, and the contraction in industrial activity, which makes the country the risk of technical recession in addition to raising taxes, will face France and second in the euro-zone economy, the difficulty in achieving rapid growth. in fact, the rate of support Francois hollande is at low levels and will be under the close relationship between Germany and France because of aDifficulties encountered by France to be competitive. In Italy and Spain were third and fourth in the euro area, economic growth is expected to be next year because of lower interest rate and growth rate. But the two will have a long road to recovery that competitiveness is the key problem in Italy and Spain, and the unemployment rate is very high, up to 25.98%. And will not cure the fundamental problems in the coming year. As a result, the upside is uncertain for the eurozone in 2014 could make the dollar more attractive than the euro in the first half of the year