Was 2013 is very exciting for the euro. While
no longer the eurozone debt crisis through the necessary actions taken
by Mario Draghi, Governor of the Bank, but the rate of growth was very
weak despite the end of the recession in the second quarter of 2013. In the second quarter, the economic growth rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter, the growth rate slowed to 0.1%. The GDP growth rate at-0.4%, which is much weaker than the 2.5 percent recorded in the third quarter. If
the Fed had decided monetary policy unchanged over the year, while the
European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. The
currency has weakened against the euro this year as the yen has dropped
by 20 percent, the Australian dollar fell by 17% and the Canadian
dollar by 10%. As the euro's performance than the US dollar, but was up by 3.4% is small compared to some other movements.
The
strength and flexibility of the euro/US dollar in the second half of
2013 has surprised many investors, especially in the fourth quarter when
the Fed increased the desire to reduce purchases of assets. In
the shadow rising American securities for Awat 10 years by 100 basis
points and rising German bonds for 10 years by 40 basis points only this
year, is expected to be EUR/USD trading at lower levels. But
the European single currency was supported by a standard current
account surplus in the euro area, lower bond yields, and diversity and
inclusion. And current account surplus means that
there are more funds entering and exiting the country for trade and
investment, and the continuous surplus could lead to the rise of the
European currency. In the case of the euro area,
slowing the rate of growth in the region has reduced the balance between
imports and exports, and the gap between them and the Federal Reserve's
efforts to keep interest rates at a low level of bond yields have made
fairly stable. And finally, after getting out of
the debt crisis in the euro zone, investors who had underestimated the
value of the assets of the euro area have become more inclined to own
these assets this year as rates have improved risk appetite and
recovering financial markets. As is the case in
us shares, the German Dax index rose I standard level and the euro
buyers attracted from investors who may have underestimated the value of
European stocks. It is expected that these three factors to apply to the euro next year, reducing the risk of downward-road in EUR/USD. Instead, we expect the pair to be in a certain range but with a downward tendency.
Expected
the euro-zone economy is growing at its fastest rate during the 2014
but will keep this sluggish rate of growth for other developed
countries. The European Central Bank expects the
economic growth rate accelerated to 1.1% from the current level at-0.4%,
which is very moderate if compared with the growth rate of 3% is
expected of America next year. With expectations low unemployment rate a little higher level standard at 12.2%, many in Europe to recover. With
low interest rates and rising wages, economic growth will be supported
by a strong German investor consumption and more exports. In return, France will be the sick man of Europe. With
unemployment 10.9% (compared to 6.9% in Germany, and continued fiscal
consolidation, and the contraction in industrial activity, which makes
the country the risk of technical recession in addition to raising
taxes, will face France and second in the euro-zone economy, the
difficulty in achieving rapid growth. in fact, the rate of support
Francois hollande is at low levels and will be under the close
relationship between Germany and France because of aDifficulties encountered by France to be competitive. In
Italy and Spain were third and fourth in the euro area, economic growth
is expected to be next year because of lower interest rate and growth
rate. But the two will have a long road to
recovery that competitiveness is the key problem in Italy and Spain, and
the unemployment rate is very high, up to 25.98%. And will not cure the fundamental problems in the coming year. As
a result, the upside is uncertain for the eurozone in 2014 could make
the dollar more attractive than the euro in the first half of the year
